Research
Working papers
Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Policy: A Quantitative Analysis [ Job Market Paper ]
This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the optimal design of deficit limits under imperfect enforcement. Utilizing data on primary balances and fiscal rules from 2000 to 2021, I document two critical patterns in low-income countries : the persistence of primary deficits and frequent instances of noncompliance with fiscal rules. To elucidate the role of noncompliance in shaping optimal deficit limits, I employ a tractable fiscal policy model to conduct a quantitative exercise. The model incorporates a key assumption that the cost of noncompliance with a deficit limit rises as borrowing increases. Analytical results demonstrate that the optimal deficit limit is determined by the magnitude of sanctions associated with violations of fiscal rules. Calibration for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies suggests that an optimal deficit limit ranges from 5.12% to 9.5% of GDP, while the sanctions vary between 0.33% and 2.7% of GDP. These findings contribute to the broader discourse on the reform of fiscal rules in SSA countries, offering evidence-based insights into the trade-offs between fiscal flexibility and the enforcement of compliance mechanisms.
Trade Policy and U.S. Multinationals activities
This paper studies the implications of trade fragmentation on U.S. Multinational Majority-Owned Foreign Affiliates (MOFA) activities. I use data on services trade restrictiveness to document that a higher level of services trade barriers is associated with a higher and persistent decline in US MOFAs' employment and investment. To explain the role of the services trade barriers in the decline of U.S. MOFA activities, I build a general equilibrium of trade and Multinational production with a fragmentation of service trade. Consistent with my empirical findings using OECD data, the model generates a drop in U.S. MOFAs' activities and output. My findings suggest that there is room for policy to mitigate the substantial impacts of service trade restrictions.
Work in progress
Transition to Renewables and Public Debt Sustainability, ( with Fansa Kone and Lucien Chaffa )
Policy papers
Do subsistence zones matter for poverty reduction?, 2024, World Bank Group, Washington DC (with Grace Doherty and Johannes Hoogeveen)
Creating Consistent Subsistence Zones with Spatial Clustering for the Sahel Region, 2024, World Bank Group, Washington DC (with Grace Doherty and Johannes Hoogeveen)
Poverty and Malnutrition in Haiti, 2020, Washington, D.C.: USAID-RTAC (with Viceisza et al.) .